SIPRI YEARBOOK 1998
Armaments, Disarmament and International Security
REMINDER: A press conference will be held at the
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on 10 June at 10
a.m., local time.
EMBARGO: Not for release until 10 June 1998,
1000 CET
"The post-cold war transnational threats and challenges call urgently
for a redefinition of the traditional concept of international security.
The security agenda ahead must be founded on a new political philosophy,
encompassing a common, institutionalized system of standards and shared
values rather than concepts based on the balance of power. . . . It is now
commonly understood that security comprises much more than military security,
although the military dimension - particularly the need to strengthen the
non-proliferation regime for weapons of mass destruction - is still relevant.
Consequently, a new arms control agenda must be set for the 21st century;
one of the top priorities must be the complete elimination of nuclear weapons,
now that the production, possession and use of chemical and biological weapons
have been prohibited in international agreements. Only in this way can the
intentional and accidental use of weapons of mass destruction be prevented.
The success of the new security agenda will require the cooperation of all
states and substantive coordination of the work of global and regional security
organizations." - From the Introduction
Highlights from the SIPRI Yearbook 1998
Security and conflicts
- Of the 25 major armed conflicts in 1997, only one - between
India and Pakistan - was interstate. All the others were internal conflicts.
- In 1997 the reinstatement of a cease-fire and the commencement
in Belfast of the first negotiations in decades between all parties to
the Northern Ireland conflict prepared the ground for the historic agreement
of April 1998.
- North Korea agreed to enter negotiations on a Korean
peace treaty, and in November Japan and Russia agreed to work towards a
peace treaty by the year 2000.
- After a promising start with the Hebron Accords, the
Middle East peace process suffered a difficult year in which renewed Israeli
settlement activity caused a breakdown in the talks, while Israel accused
the Palestinians of failing to stop terrorism.
- There was growing concern in Russia about challenges
to its role in the space of the former Soviet Union from competing influences,
particularly in the oil-rich areas of Central Asia. A new pragmatism entered
its relations with Chechnya.
- There was growing concern in Russia about challenges
to its role in the space of the former Soviet Union from competing influences,
particularly in the oil-rich areas of Central Asia. A new pragmatism entered
its relations with Chechnya.
Military spending and armaments
- World military expenditure declined by around one-third
over the 10-year period 1988-97 and is estimated to correspond to roughly
$740 billion in 1997. In recent years the decline has slowed down: to an
average rate of less than 1% in the past two years, as against an average
of 4.5% over the entire period.
- The most significant impact on the trend in global military
expenditure was the sharp cut in Russian spending in 1992. Russia's actual
military expenditure in 1997 was less than one-tenth of that of the USSR
in 1988. There have also been significant cuts in Africa, Central America
and the United States.
- In 1988-97 military expenditure increased in some regions,
in particular the Middle East and South and East Asia. However, the military
budgets of several countries in East Asia are being revised downwards as
a result of the financial crisis in the region.
- The arms industry continued to undergo significant restructuring
in 1997, mainly in the form of mergers and acquisitions in the US arms
industry, which proceeded rapidly, and international joint ventures in
Western Europe, a slower process.
- The USA remains the dominant power in terms of military
technology - with a military R&D budget more than seven times that of France,
the nearest competitor - while Russian military technology is coming under
stricter export controls and continues to fall further behind the state
of the art.
- India has spent about $500 million (in 1995 dollars)
annually on military R&D since 1993, a figure that will rise significantly
if current plans are carried out. This is roughly 28% of Indian Government
funding of science and 18% of funding for science in the entire country,
a figure exceeded only in the USA. If funding for nuclear and space R&D is
included, the amount is $910 million, or 68% of government-funded science.
- Japan, the USA's only competitor in the realm of civilian
technology, cut its military R&D budget - which is only about one-twentieth
of that of the USA - for the first time in 30 years in 1997.
- At just over $25 billion, the global SIPRI trend-indicator
value for deliveries of major conventional weapons in 1997 was some 12%
higher than the level recorded for 1996. While the US share in deliveries
of major conventional weapons had increased to 43%, that of Russia had
fallen to 14%.
Non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament
- The START II Treaty remained in limbo in 1997, despite
agreement between Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin on a series of measures
to boost its chances of being ratified by the Russian Parliament. Proponents
of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty faced a difficult struggle
to win the ratification of all the 44 states needed to bring it into force.
- In 1997 China, Russia and the USA ratified the Chemical
Weapons Convention. The convention entered into force on 29 April 1997,
and work was started on the establishment of an effective chemical weapon
disarmament regime.
- In 1997 membership of the multilateral export control
regimes continued to grow. Of greatest significance was China's entry into
the Zangger Committee, a regime in which nuclear supplier states can harmonize
aspects of their national export control systems.
- On 23 July at the CFE Treaty adaptation negotiations
in Vienna, the Joint Consultative Group adopted the Decision Concerning
Certain Basic Elements for Treaty Adaptation. In Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Croatia and Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro), reductions of heavy weapons
were successfully completed under the 1996 Florence Agreement.
- The Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling,
Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction
(the APM Convention) was opened for signature in December 1997. By May
1998, 11 states had ratified the convention. The International Campaign
to Ban Landmines, together with its coordinator Jody Williams, was awarded
the Nobel Peace Prize for 1997.
Brief table of contents
For chapter and
annexe summaries, please click the desired listing below.
Introduction: Transformation of the world security system
Part I. Security and conflicts, 1997
Part II. Military spending and armaments, 1997
Part III. Non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament,
1997
Annexes
Plus a glossary of terms and membership of multilateral
organizations, tables, figures, maps, data appendices and extensive documentation
How to order
SIPRI YEARBOOK 1998
Armaments, Disarmament and International Security
ISBN 0-19-829454-9 (casebound) - 638 pp,
including index
£60.00 *
is published for SIPRI by Oxford
University Press
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK, for SIPRI.
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