7. Military research and development*
Eric Arnett

Global military research and development (R&D) expenditure continued to decline in 1997, mainly because of reductions in the US budget, which will be cut by another 14% by the year 2001. Critics claim that US forces are vulnerable to new threats, particularly ballistic and cruise missiles, but these fears are exaggerated. US investment in military R&D is more than seven times that of France, the nearest competitor. It is unlikely that a global challenger to US power will emerge before 2020. Rather, the international system will increase its dependence on US technology and military intervention.

By the mid-1990s most members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) were spending less than 110% of their 1983 R&D funding levels. The fear commonly expressed that science would be irreversibly militarized by the build-up in the 1980s has not been borne out, the military share of government and national R&D having returned to its 1983 level or lower in most cases. Contrary to expectations, the 1991 Persian Gulf War did not lead 'second-tier' arms producers to increase their R&D budgets in the hope of developing or countering technologies demonstrated by the USA, which itself cancelled several programmes at that time.

Russia is allowing its design bureaux to sell their expertise abroad, but has promised to limit technology transfer. Japan reduced its military R&D investment for the first time since 1976.