SIPRI YEARBOOK 1997

4. Russia: conflicts and its security environment*
Vladimir Baranovsky

The 1996 Russian presidential election was an important step towards consolidation of Russia's political system and enabled the governing élite to solidify its grasp on power. Boris Yeltsin's victory did not, however, end the struggle for power across Russia's political spectrum and between the federal and provincial administrations.

Hostilities in Chechnya ceased, although settlement of the enclave's political status was postponed until 2001. Russia's active mediation has fostered political dialogue between the conflicting parties in the Trans-Dniester region, Tajikistan and South Ossetia, but the conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh and Abkhazia remain deadlocked.

There was a spectacular rapprochement between Russia and Belarus while Belarus was experiencing a significant shift away from democratic standards in domestic developments. In Russian-Ukrainian relations, both governments have avoided confrontation, although differences over the basing rights of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Ukrainian Navy in Sevastopol and other uncertainties persisted. The debate continued over the scope and pace of integration in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which is recognized by participants as a useful framework for multilateral discussions but has not achieved much in practice. Persisting disagreements between Russia and each of the Baltic states - Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania - over the demarcation of borders and the plight of the Russian-speaking minorities acquired a lower profile, but the Baltic states' desire to join NATO has produced concern on the part of Moscow.