SIPRI YEARBOOK 1997

2. Armed conflict prevention, management and resolution*
Trevor Findlay

1996 was notable for peace settlements in the Philippines, Sierra Leone and Guatemala, but progress was slow in for example the Middle East, Northern Ireland, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Africa, especially Liberia, Sudan and the Great Lakes Region, and an arc of instability around the Russian periphery remained the most troubled regions and those most targeted by conflict prevention, management and resolution efforts.

The UN continued to be prominent in peace efforts although the Security Council was still reluctant to launch new initiatives, even in desperate situations like those of Burundi and Zaire. UN peacekeeping consequently continued its dramatic decline. With the remaining large-scale UN operations all due to end in 1997, the post-cold war era of large, multi-component missions, aimed in effect at nation-building, appeared to be over. The largest extant mission in 1996 was the NATO-led IFOR and its successor, SFOR, in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The UN's leadership crisis ended with the appointmentof Kofi Annan as the new Secretary-General. By the end of 1996 the UN could look forward to less uncertainty, reform and improved financial health.

Regional organizations worldwide continued to struggle to create the capacity to deal with potential and actual conflicts in thei rown areas. Competent subregional organizations are slowly emerging.

Appendix 2A, by Olga Hardardóttir, presents a table of multilateral peacekeeping operations in 1996.