SIPRI YEARBOOK 1997

14. Conventional arms control*
Zdzislaw Lachowski

1996 opened a new period of conventional arms control negotiation with the aim of adapting the CFE Treaty to the new security conditions and the prospective enlargement of NATO. Effective handling of subregional problems is critical for the overall success of arms control and peace efforts in the OSCE area. The Florence Agreement is a step towards establishing a military balance among former warring parties in the former Yugoslavia. However, as long as the former belligerents have not formulated their ultimate political goals, this will adversely affect implementation.

Outside Europe, conventional arms control is, for the most part, at an early stage. The problem of land-mines has acquired special importance because of the toll of civilian casualties. The success of efforts to achieve a global land-mine ban will depend largely on the stance taken by the main producers and exporters. The USA has taken some significant steps towards this goal, but its decision to sidestep the Ottawa Group in favour of the Conference on Disarmament has lessened the chances for rapid progress and seems to shift the focus towards a phased approach. Russia has shown some interest in considering a step-by-step approach, but China still appears reluctant.

Appendix 14A, by Zdzislaw Lachowski, on CSBMs in Europe, reviews the implementation of the Vienna Document 1994 during 1996 and subregional developments.