EMBARGO: Not for release until 13 June 1996, 0900 GMT
'In the post-cold war period, new threats and risks have emerged, while some of the 'old' ones continue to exist. The risk of an outbreak of global nuclear war has diminished, but the danger of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction has increased. The serious threat at present is the loss of control of developments by the great powers, the multilateral security organizations and the states on whose territories conflicts have broken out. The international system, based on the principles of interaction of sovereign states, is eroding.... The new security system will express the political philosophy ofa pluralistic community rather than a specific model or set of abstract assumptions. The comprehensive nature of such a system should reflect three fundamental objectives of peace: security; social and economic welfare; and respect for human rights, justice and organization of society based on the rule of law.' - From the IntroductionHighlights from the SIPRI Yearbook 1996
Armed conflicts and global and regional security- There was no major armed conflict between states in 1995. All 30 major armed conflicts were within states.
- The UNPROFOR debacle in Bosnia and the cash crisis at the United Nations sent peacekeeping into decline. Emphasis at the UN switched to conflict prevention.
- The Dayton peace agreement stopped the fighting in Bosnia abruptly, but numerous pitfalls stand in the way of full implementation of Dayton and the achievement of genuine peace.
- Success and tragedy marked the Middle East peace process. Palestinians gained new rights and responsibilities but Prime Minister Rabin's assassination unsettled Israelis and the region.
- Tension between North and South Korea and between mainland China and Taiwan did not derail their promising economic, political and cultural dialogue.
- The war in Chechnya persisted as the most painful development in Russia. Incoherent peace efforts failed to stop the fighting or to settle Chechnya's future status vis-à-vis the Russian Federation.
- Europe's main security challenge is to revitalize NATO and offer Russia and its western neighbours a new cooperative security arrangement.
Military spending, R&D, arms production and arms trade
- Aggregate world military spending continued to decline in 1995. Many developing countries continued to spend at levels out of proportion to their legitimate security requirements.
- Military R&D spending has decreased by 50-55 per cent since 1987. France, Italy, Sweden and the USA reduced their efforts by 25 per cent or more. Only India, Japan and South Korea increased their spending significantly.
- The production of military equipment is still decreasing in most parts of the world.
- At $22.8 billion (SIPRI trend-indicator value), the volume of the trade in major conventional weapons was unchanged in 1995. The USA remained the largest arms exporter but Russia increased its share of overall deliveries dramatically, from 4 per cent in 1994 to 17 per cent in 1995.
Non-proliferation, export controls, arms control and disarmament
- In a major success for nuclear non-proliferation, the Non-Proliferation Treaty was made permanent. A universal non-proliferation regime appeared to be attainable, but tensions increased over non-compliance and progress towards nuclear disarmament.
- The new Wassenaar Arrangement may become the first forum in which governments coordinate their approaches to the global distribution of conventional military power. Failure to agree specific operating procedures delayed its formal establishment.
- Progress in negotiations on a nuclear test ban made a CTB treaty likely to be concluded in 1996. Progress in nuclear disarmament was mixed: START I cuts in US-Russian nuclear weapons continued but Russian ratification of START II remained uncertain. Pressure grew in the USA to drastically revise or abolish the ABM Treaty.
- The use of the nerve agent sarin in the Tokyo underground system starkly illustrated the need for enhanced national law enforcement and defence measures to make it more difficult for terrorists to manufacture, procure or use chemical or biological weapons or agents.
- The CFE Treaty process for reducing conventional weapons in Europe was completed. Around 50 000 heavy weapons have been cut back by the 30 states parties.
- The Inhumane Weapons Convention Review Conference adopted a Protocol that bans the use of non-detectable anti-personnel mines, but with a grace period which may exceed a decade.
Brief table of contents
For chapter and annex summaries, please click the desired listing below.Introduction: towards a pluralistic security system
Part I. Global and regional security and conflicts, 1995
Part II. Military expenditure, R&D, arms production and trade, 1995
Part III. Non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament, 1995
Annexes
Plus tables, figures, maps, data appendices and extensive documentation
How to order
SIPRI YEARBOOK 1996
Armaments, Disarmament and International SecurityISBN 0-19-829202-3 (casebound) - c. 820 pp, including index
£60.00 *is published for SIPRI by Oxford University Press
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, the UK, for SIPRI.
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