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Homepage1995 was a year of progress in the field of nuclear arms control, although one marked by indications that the political momentum towards further arms reductions and technological limitations was waning. In the light of the 'unfinished business' remaining on the arms control agenda, 1996 will be a watershed year in which the nuclear weapon states, which still possess over 20 000 nuclear weapons, move either decisively to advance that agenda or noticeably away from it.
The UN Conference on Disarmament (CD) made considerable progress towards concluding negotiations on a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty (CTBT) and achieved a mandate to negotiate a convention banning the production of fissile material for nuclear explosives. However, despite consensus at the CD that the CTBT should be completed in 1996, there were signs that it might not be. China's positions in particular will have to be adjusted if this deadline is to be met, and several other issues remain to be resolved. Furthermore, the CD never formed a committee to negotiate the fissile material convention.
Implementation of the 1991 START I Treaty in reductions in strategic nuclear delivery vehicles proceeded ahead of schedule in the five states parties. However, the prospects for Russian ratification of the 1993 START II Treaty looked increasingly gloomy in the light of a number of technical and financial objections to the treaty raised in the parliament and the general souring of US-Russian relations.
International efforts to reduce the potential nuclear weapon-related dangers attending the breakup of the USSR intensified in 1995. There was growing bilateral cooperation between the USA and Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine, with the US-funded Cooperative Threat Reduction Programme delivering large-scale assistance aimed primarily at strengthening central control over former Soviet nuclear warheads, improving their physical security and safety, and accelerating the dismantlement of their launch vehicles and associated infrastructure.
There was growing controversy over the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and moves in the US Congress to commit the USA to develop and deploy a national missile defence system. In addition, negotiations between Russia and the USA to clarify the scope of the treaty remained at an impasse; the USA proceeded with the testing of a new advanced-capability theatre missile defence interceptor despite the lack of agreement with Russia over the permissibility of such tests under the terms of the ABM Treaty. China, France and the UK indicated that deployment of new missile defence systems could compel them to take compensatory measures that might require nuclear weapon testing.
Despite the ominous portents, there is good reason to believe that the CTB treaty will be opened for signature in 1996 and that Russia and the USA will find a modus vivendi for the ABM Treaty, START II and even further reductions. However, despite a renewed push for the global elimination of nuclear weapons in the near term by the non-nuclear weapon states in 1995, the process of reducing them to zero, if it continues, will do so only gradually, taking decades rather than years.